Women Tracking Men

Female athletes have been catching up with men in the race to become the fastest human on the planet. But they may have to wait another 150 years before they finally overtake them, scientists believe.

Researchers estimate that if current trends continue women sprinters will be the track torch bearers at the 2156 Olympics, covering the 100 metres in 8.079 seconds, leaving the men in second place at 8.098.

By plotting winning times of Olympic 100 metre finals over the past century scientists argue that sprinting achievement may not have reached a plateau and that records could continue to be broken.

And the mathematical formula reveals that women could be crossing the finishing line first at any time between the 2064 and 2788 Olympics. But the most likely will be the 2156 Games.

The study, which features in this week’s edition of Nature,(September 30th)was led by Dr Andy Tatem, from the Department of Zoology at Oxford University, who worked on the assumption that athletes were drug-free and conditions were as suitable as possible. Aided by Carlos Guerra from Oxford, Peter Atkinson, of Southampton University and Simon Hay from the KEMRI/Wellcome Trust research unit in Kenya, Olympic winning times for men starting from the beginning of the 20th century were logged.

At the first women’s 100 metres Olympics event, staged in 1928 in Amsterdam, the winning time was 12.2 seconds compared to the men’s 10.8 – a 1.4 seconds difference.

By 1952 the margin had decreased to 1.1 seconds with the men hitting the tape at 10.4 and the women 11.5.

In four of the five Olympics between 1988 and 2000 the difference was under one second. But in Athens this summer when Belarussian Yuliya Nesterenko took the title at 10.93 and American Justin Gatlin won in 9.85, the gap widened to 1.08 seconds.

However if overall trends continue the calculations suggest that by the next Olympics (2008) the women’s 100-metre race could be won in 10.57 seconds and the men’s in 9.73.

The world 100 metre records are currently held by Tim Montgomery – 9.78 seconds – and Florence Griffith-Joyner – 10.49.

Dr Tatem said: “We are not saying categorically that women will overtake the men but we think there is a chance and we have put this up for discussion. The trends found show they seem to be closing the gap so maybe one day they could become the dominant force.

“This year’s women’s Olympic final was a little unusual in that some of the world’s fastestrunners were not present, so the time wasn’t perhaps as impressive as it could have been.

“People often argue that athletes have reached their limits but, in this study at least, that doesn’t seem to be the case. However we have no idea how low times for the 100 metres could go.

“We have to assume that athletes in the future will be drug-free but who is to say what the rules will be in 2156? It was once considered ungentlemanly to even train for athletic events so who knows what will happen.”

Ends.

Media contact:

Mark Anderson / Barry Gardner, Wellcome Trust.

0207 611 8612/ 7329.

The Wellcome Trust is an independent research-funding charity established in 1936 under the will of tropical medicine pioneer Sir Henry Wellcome.The Trust’s mission is to promote research with the aim of improving human and animal health and it currently spends more than £400m p.a.