Stabilising greenhouse gas emissions

How likely is it that greenhouse gas emissions will be curbed?

International negotiations are taking place to negotiate caps on greenhouse gas production. The bulk of the greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere have come from industrialised countries. Increasingly, though, rapidly growing middle-income countries - particularly China and India - are generating much greater quantities.

In 2008, China overtook the USA as the world's leading producer of carbon dioxide (though its emissions per person are much lower). Emissions from developing countries are also expected to increase as they industrialise.

So who should make sacrifices? The USA is unwilling to take action while China and others develop economically. Less well off countries ask why they should be denied the benefits that rich countries have gained from fossil fuel use.

So, while some countries or regions (notably the EU) have made commitments to cut emissions, the production of greenhouse gases is still increasing - globally, 2007 recorded the biggest leap yet seen. At the moment economic self-interest seems to have the upper hand.

Economic incentives

Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC, has argued that a carbon trading (or emissions trading) system is essential, creating business incentives that encourage cuts in emissions. The basic idea is that a limit or cap is set on overall emissions, with individual countries or companies having a certain amount of carbon they can release. They can trade credits with others. Over time, the overall cap is lowered.

Although various systems exist, it is not yet clear how effective they are. The EU system, for example, has been criticised for being too lax - it has led to little or no real reductions. And under George Bush, the USA remained outside the Kyoto system.

Alternatives such as carbon taxes - taxing carbon-based fuel use - have also been proposed to discourage fossil fuel consumption.